November 3, 2009

Kyle Henderson
NMPreps.com Publisher

There has been a lot of talk about the play-off seeding meeting that will take place this coming Saturday night. As you have seen on the message boards "bubble play-off teams" from each class have been making their case as to why they should not stay home. Here is my take on the bubble trouble in classes 5A, 4A, and 3A.

As nmscoop posted on the message boards
Here is the vague criteria the selection committees are given:

There is neither order nor priority in the seeding criteria listed below:
? 1. Finish in district play
? 2. Performance against other teams including district champions or runner-ups from other districts.
? 3. Input from Committee members.
? 4. Overall records.

Teams from the same district will be guaranteed not to play each other in the first round. Seeding Committee must take this into consideration when seeding teams.

One district team cannot be seeded or selected higher than another who came out of district as a lower seed with regular season taking precedence over tournament play.

Hendo's Class 5A Play-Off Locks In No Order
Rio Rancho
Cibola
La Cueva
Mayfield
Onate
Las Cruces
Clovis
Manzano
Eldorado

THREE SPOTS UP FOR GRABS

Please Note: I took my heart out of this and looked at it keeping the committee rules in mind.

Meet The Class 5A Bubble Teams And Their Resumes

Cleveland Storm (5-3), (1-2)
? Projected district finish - Third
? Projected district record (2-2)
? Class 5A Teams They Beat: Gallup
? Class 5A Teams They Lost To: Cibola, Carlsbad, Rio Rancho
? Record against Class 5A Teams: (1-3) *Projected (2-3) after Saturday
? Other Teams They Beat: Capital, Miyamura, Piedra Vista, Raton
? Play West Mesa in week 11
? Current Power Point Number: 52.22
? Strength of Schedule From Power Rankings: 220
If Hendo was on the committee: This team should NOT make the play-offs. They are third in their district, but they lost a key classification game to Carlsbad 52-0. Their best season win so far was against (1-9) Gallup. They only played one district champ on the season (Rio Rancho/Cibola) and lost both contents in big fashion. Their Saturday projected win against West Mesa will not improve their chances. OUT

Sandia Matadors (4-5), (2-1)
? Projected district finish - Second
? Projected district record (3-1)
? Class 5A Teams They Beat: Highland, Albuquerque, and Valley
? Class 5A Teams They Lost To: Cibola, Eldorado, Alamogordo, Onate, and La Cueva
? Record against Class 5A Teams: (3-5) *Projected (4-5) after Friday
? Other Teams They Beat: Del Norte
? *Play Santa Fe in week 11
? Current Power Point Number: 46.11
? Strength of Schedule From Power Rankings: 215
If Hendo was on the committee: Yes Sandia is the district champ, but that loss to Alamogordo stays on my mind. They lost to two Cibola, Eldorado, and Onate (Cibola and Onate could wind up second in their districts) and their only quality win come from beating (6-4) Valley. Strength of schedule does not count and neither does the district runner up spot, however Sandia is playing better football right now and they will end the season winning three out of the last four. If they win Saturday, they will be .500 on the year, which according to rule #4, the seeding committee does look at. Sandia DOES make the play-offs. IN

Valley Vikings (6-4), (2-2)
? District Finish - Third
? Final district record (2-2)
? Class 5A Teams They Beat: Los Lunas, Gallup, Albuquerque, and Santa Fe
? Class 5A Teams They Lost To: Eldorado, Onate, La Cueva, and Sandia
? Record against Class 5A Teams: (4-4)
? Other Teams They Beat: Moriarty and Del Norte
? Season is complete
? Current Power Point Number: 47.50
? Strength of Schedule From Power Rankings: 175
If Hendo was on the committe: That .500 level record against 5A teams looks good, but that key district loss to Sandia outshines their (6-4) record. The rules states, we can't take a third place team when they lost to a second place team. So if we don't take Sandia first, then we cannot take Valley. One factor working for Valley is the fact that they played La Cueva close (35-16). Rule #2 makes the Vikings look good. Valley makes the play-offs. IN

Alamogordo Tigers (4-6), (1-3)
? District Finish - Fourth
? Final district record - (1-3)
? Class 5A Teams They Beat: Sandia and Gadsden
? Class 5A Teams They Lost To: Clovis, Carlsbad, Hobbs, Mayfield, Onate, and Las Cruces
? Record against Class 5A Teams: (2-6)
? Other Teams They Beat: Goddard and Roswell
? Season Complete
? Current Power Point Number: 44.50
? Strength of Schedule From Power Rankings: 245
If Hendo was on the committee: Their win against Sandia is really their only bright spot. This team had other chances to beat other class 5A potential play-off teams (Hobbs/Carlsbad) and did not. Another thing working against Alamogordo besides being fourth in their district is the fact that they were outscored 76-13 in their final two games. They also lost to the district 3-5A projected champ Mayfield 40-21. If they were serious about making an argument for the play-offs, they should of had better showings late in the year. OUT

Hobbs Eagles (3-6), (1-1)
? Projected district finish - Second
? Projected district record (1-2)
? Class 5A Teams They Beat: Alamogordo and Carlsbad
? Class 5A Teams They Lost To: Rio Rancho and Onate
? Record against Class 5A Teams: (2-2) *Projected (2-3) after Friday
? Other Teams They Beat: Roswell
? *Play Clovis in week 11
? Current Power Point Number: 42.22
? Strength of Schedule From Power Rankings: 230
If Hendo was on the committee: You might not like their overall season record, but this team won the big games that mattered most (Alamogordo/Carlsbad). If you're a bubble team, you want to have a win over other bubble teams, Hobbs has two wins over two bubble teams and they are district runner up, not that it matters. If they don't get blown out by 50 like they did last year to Clovis, this team makes the play-offs. Hobbs DOES make the play-offs. IN

Carlsbad Cavemen (4-6), (0-2)
? District Finish - Third
? Final district record - (0-2)
? Class 5A Teams They Beat: Alamogordo, Highland, and Cleveland
? Class 5A Teams They Lost To: Mayfield, Hobbs, and Clovis
? Record against Class 5A Teams: (3-3)
? Other Teams They Beat: Andress (Texas)
? Season Complete
? Current Power Point Number: 48.00
? Strength of Schedule From Power Rankings: 280
If Hendo was on the committee: I really dislike these three team districts. Carlsbad has a key win over Alamogordo, but is that really enough? Rule number two states, "Performance against other teams including district champions or runner-ups from other districts." Okay, Carlsbad lost to Mayfield 38-0 and to Clovis the champ of their district 42-7. They also lost to the runner up of their own district 48-21, which means they have been outscored 90-35 in their last two contests. Looking at this like using the four key components listed above, Carlsbad will NOT make the play-offs. OUT

Final Three Teams I Take Based Off The NMAA Rules And Not My Heart
Sandia
Valley
Hobbs

Class 4A Bubble Trouble Addition Coming Soon. Comment Here